The 2017 Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning at 8:30 am EST. I’m actually looking forward to seeing how some of these races have shaped up. Back in December, I honestly thought that most of the acting categories were pretty much locked in, but the Golden Globes and the SAG and BAFTA nominations have thrown me for a loop. Like, does Emily Blunt seriously have a chance at a nomination for The Girl on the Train? Will Loving be completely snubbed?? Anyway, this is a post for guesswork and predictions.
There’s no egregious DiCaprio-situation this year. Like, at this time last year, Leonardo DiCaprio was doing everything he could to put a lock on his Oscar. That’s not really happening with anyone this year. Like, Emma Stone, Natalie Portman and Casey Affleck are majorly campaigning, but it’s all pretty much by the books. I think Casey is hustling a lot more than we realize, mostly behind the scenes.
Where the money’s going. According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, most of the money on print and online Oscar advertising has gone to Loving and Manchester by the Sea. Those studios are spending about the same (high) amount of money on “for your consideration” advertising, and then Sully, Nocturnal Animals and La La Land are spending about the same amount on the second tier of advertising. 538 also tried to gauge “buzz” about the films and they think Fences, La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea have the most buzz ahead of the Oscars.
The directors will be messy. I just have a feeling about this, you guys. It might be Mel Gibson popping up for Hacksaw Ridge. It might be Martin Scorsese for Silence (which has barely any buzz). It might be a prominent snub for Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). I just feel like something weird is going to happen there.
The Best Actress race is crazy. Most years, the Best Actress race isn’t this complicated. There are usually one or two favorites and then the other nominations go to a shortlist of names we’ve already seen a lot already. This year, there are two favorites: Emma Stone and Natalie Portman. They are, for sure, getting nominated. But everyone else is up in the air. Will Emily Blunt stun everyone and get nominated? What about Ruth Negga? Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures? Isabella Huppert for Elle? Amy Adams in Arrival? Annette Bening? Meryl Streep? Also: watch this category for whitewashing. I’m worried that somehow Taraji AND Ruth won’t get nominations.
The Best Actor race is meh. I really want Jake Gyllenhaal and Ryan Gosling to both get nominated and really run campaigns to scare the crap out of Casey Affleck. While I think Ryan will get nominated, I just think Casey has a lock on this now. I also think Viggo Mortensen will probably end up with a nomination (he got a SAG nom out of nowhere too). I’ll be surprised if Denzel Washington gets nominated. And I’m worried that Joel Edgerton is being shut out.
The supporting categories will have minority actors. If Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel and Octavia Spencer don’t get nominated, that will be the third year in a row of #OscarsSoWhite. But keep in mind that it’s completely possible that minority actors will only be nominated in the supporting categories and the lead categories will be all-white. Which is another conversation about diversity in film we need to have.
Viola Davis better have this locked up. Seriously, if she doesn’t get an Oscar for Fences, what are we even doing?
Best Supporting Actor shocker. Will Aaron Taylor Johnson end up with a nomination? The smart money last month had Michael Shannon getting all of the attention, but now Aaron looks like he could get his first nom.
Photos courtesy of IMDB.
I’ve been seeing adds for lala land and am a bit freaked out by how frail emma stone looks.
I saw the movie on Saturday and was totally distracted by how ill she looks. As someone with an eating disorder, I feel like that level of thinness is very unnatural. She definitely does not look well. I think she has gained a little now though and looks spectacularly beautiful again, but she does not look healthy at all in La La Land.
I’ve seen LA LA LAND and thought she looked slim but fine nothing compared to how thin and fragile she looked in TASM2 and Birdman.
I haven’t seen birdman yet (it’s on my Netflix list) but isn’t her character an Addict or something? So looking frail and unhealthy makes,sense.
Doesn’t really look that thin to me in stills. But I googled around and apparently La La Land was shot in autumn 2015, exactly when she split from AG. So maybe it was stress.
I thought she looked fine. I’m about the same size as her and I’m on the low end of the healthy BMI range.
I’m still sad Viola didn’t go for lead actress. She’s so respected and so good, she would have been the frontrunner.
I think she should have gone for lead as well. And I think she would have won in that category.
Ugh same here. And it’s unfortunate that the lead actress category will probably end up being totally white (I agree with Kaiser that Ruth will probably be snubbed, even though she was fantastic in Loving). I can’t see Denzel being snubbed though, I think he’s a lock for a best actor nom.
I was so excited to see Loving, and while I enjoyed the movie, I wasn’t blown away by the acting (except for Michael Shannon – he owned that movie for the whole 3 minutes he was in it). I don’t know if I just built it up in my head so much or what, but I didn’t really think either of them gave Oscar level performances. However, we watched Hidden Figures this weekend, and I was blown away by both Taraji P. Henson and Octavia Spencer. I don’t doubt Octavia will get a supporting nod. But if you’re right and Taraji doesn’t get a nod, I will be so pissed.
Me too, the only thing I can remember about ‘The Help’ is Viola, I just thought she was so extraordinary but she’s pretty amazing in everything I’ve ever seen her in.
I think she most definitely should have gone for lead, but I think they wanted to play it safe. I mean can you picture the academy giving a lead actress Oscar to a dark skinned older black woman? Can you imagine if Viola Davis lost to Natalie Portman or Emma Stone. I would be so sad.
Moonlight, Fences and Hidden Figures better get noms. HF is making more money than LLL on fewer screens. Moonlight is one of the best movies I’ve seen this year. Natalie getting a win for Jackie is just further proof of white mediocrity being rewarded.
White mediocrity is La La Land doing a nostalgic paint by the numbers MGM style musical and people acting like its groundbreaking. Seriously, watch TCM or ACM, whatever that channel calls itself these days, theres absolutely nothing new in La La Land. If anything, they carried all the problems of those old movies, appropriating a black concept, “rescuing” a black art form from its own creators, completely erasing LGBT from the Hollywood scene of all places, etc. I saw a review that called it regressive and I couldnt agree more. I dont have an issue with rewarding Goslings or Emmas performances but giving it Best Script or Best Film will be the utimate in White Mediocrity. And I believe history will remember it as such too. It will joing the list of “really?!” Oscar Winners. Thats my La La Land rant for today.
Agree. Giving it script or film is ridiculous. Moonlight should get Picture. I could see LLL or Moonlight being the two for Director because I think the direction was great in both.
But yea mediocrity is always praised for white people but minorities have to be next to perfect to get the noms (and wins) they deserve.
Thank you! Let’s not even go on about how the people involved keep talking about how it was such a big risk to get it made. It’s a film set in an era that white people are obsessed with because it fits into their good old days nostalgia fetish, stars primarily white people and is a musical. How many of those are made and are raved about in Hollywood? Please. It’s especially insulting considering one of its contenders was Moonlight, a film with a primarily dark skinned black cast which is damn near unheard of, which was delayed not only due to institutional racism but homophobia as well. The entirety of La La Land irks me. Let’s not even get into how mediocre subpar white acting gets a pass and even awarded but stellar acting from poc is continously ignored . You can’t tell me that Gosling and Stone hold a candle to Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis, or Ashton Sanders.
Ugh, totally. Just writing to agree with you guys. You know, Emma has starred in a Woody Allen film, played a problematic role in the problematic movie “The Help,” was nonsensically cast as an Asian American in that horrible film Aloha and now this? Me thinks girl either isn’t the brightest or flat out doesn’t care about having integrity.
To Miss Grace Jones:
FYI, La La Land is set in modern times.
I cannot wait to see Moonlight kicking myself I didn’t see it in November in NY. I must wait a few more weeks for it to appear here in the UK. I saw La La Land, I am not a big musical fan it was good but I don’t get the hype. I saw Jackie as well, I think she was better in Black Swan my husband said not enough of a story for him. Also looking forward to Loving, Fences, Hidden Figures again February here.
Moonlight is an extraordinary film. It subverts so many of your expectations with regard to a film about a low income black community. It’s specific to the community and still tells a universal story. We sooo need more films that humanize marginalized communities.
Additionally, it was very unique in general, the pacing, the dialogue…I loved it.
Hidden Figures is one of the best movies I’ve seen in a long time, and it is getting very little attention from the critics. Granted it is basically just a story, and doesn’t have the bringing back old musical thing or creative shots. No it is just a good story that hasn’t been told much, well written, directed and acted. Unlike some pictures it is easy to watch, and doesn’t seem to drag on like La La Land. I kept wondering why I had never heard this story before as it really is a remarkable story about women and people of color, and just overcoming obstacles. Go see it if you have not, it is worth it. I haven’t seen Moonlight or some of the others, so I can’t really compare those.
Everyone I know has already either seen Hidden Figures or wants to see it desperately (I’m one of the latter). I don’t know about critics, but the crowds seem psyched anyway.
Saw Hidden Figures over the weekend. In its own way, I thought it was Hollywood schmaltz. I loved that they brought to light the stories of these 3 remarkable women, but if you read about the real people, their experiences were not as racist as depicted in the movie, their colleagues were not as hateful, the fellow scientists were part of a team. There was no smashing down of a Colored Women’s bathroom sign. No separate but equal coffee machine. But in Hollywood fashion they had to over-dramatize the racist divide to make it more polarizing. I loved everyone’s performances but I wished the story itself had been written with more subtlety. The standout for me was Janelle Monae. She’s got real star quality. I think she deserves Best Supporting because she glows on the screen!
Hidden Figures is SUCH a great film and everyone involved was wonderful. Those ladies alone should account for most of the female acting nods.
I’m not trying to argue with you Nicole, but that’s not accurate at all. Hidden Figures is playing in 3,416 theaters to La La Land’s 1,865 theaters. La La Land isn’t going into a wider release until the Oscars because that it when it will make the most money. Again, not here to argue as they are both wonderful films but you can’t say things like they are facts when they are not true at all.
Sorry you’re right I meant to say it was playing in fewer theaters than Rogue One in its first few weeks of release and ended up topping that movie. That was my mistake.
I saw Fences a few weeks ago (not knowing much about it other than that it was based on a play) and WOW was Viola Davis spectacular…if she doesn’t have it on lock my jaw will hit the floor.
I think the best actress will be a white wash – there is no way that Portman and Streep won’t get a nom. I think Adams and Stone will get one and maybe Taraji.
Sad.
If Streep gets a nomination for her lackluster performance in FFJ, I will be pissed! There are so many amazing performances every year, and I hate how she ends up getting a default nomination, even when she is not deserving. I do agree with you, though, that best actress will end up being all white 🙁
I would, however, like to see Simon Helberg get a nod for FFJ.
Agreed, he was excellent in what I thought was a very mediocre film (I said this on a previous thread, but the French take on this story, Marguerite, was 1000x better). I also happen to be a Hugh Grant apologist, but I didn’t think he did much with his character. But I could totally get behind Simon getting a nom.
Simon Helberg was the best thing about that film. Sadly, comedic performances are often overlooked but he was brilliant. The second best thing was Nina Arianda’s laughing until she had to crawl showgirl.
Agree about Simon Helberg. I would like to see Taraji or Ruth get a nom over Meryl, though.
I actually thought this was the best work I’ve seen from Hugh Grant in a looooong time.
@Bella bella, I agree that it was Hugh’s best work in a long, long time. He played the straight man while all around him were losing their minds. But Simon did so much with just his eyebrows!
I wasn’t knocked out by Portman’s performance. It was good but not great IMO so hope she won’t get a nod (but sure she will). Her accent was pretty flawless though.
No. I knew Jackie. That was not her voice.
Meryl was good, but I don’t think it was that award worthy either, and I generally am a Meryl Streep fan.
Andrew Garfield surely won’t be snubbed again. He deserved a supporting nom for The Social Network he was the emotional anchor of that film. I’ve seen Silence which he is absolutely phenomenal in and I’ve heard he’s even better in Hacksaw Ridge which is out on Friday here in the UK. So yeah hoping for a Stonefield oscar reunion 😉
He should deservedly be nominated for Hacksaw Ridge, he completely made that movie watchable for me. And yes, he should have gotten a nomination for The Social Network!
I hope Mel Gibson gets snubbed though.
“Silence” was a powerful film and I hate to say it, because I don’t care for him, Adam Driver was really good in it.
IF you haven’t seen “Boy A”, look it up. It’s a touching, sometimes difficult film to watch, but Andrew Garfield is so incredible in it. I watched it after I saw him in the Social Network because I could see he was extremely talented.
All the awards are bought anyway.
Plus, ratings for award shows are constantly declining, people are not that interested anymore in shows like that.
True, because everyone knows the awards are almost like a political campaign. None of these awards are based on performance… it is so disheartening as a fan of film.
Yes this is my perception too. But, we all seemed to get worked up anyway, myself included.
I’m trying to wean myself off not caring as my favourites are usually poc films that never win.
Jackie was snooze fest and Portman does not deserve an award for cosplay and whispering. Hidden Figures was wonderful but I really didn’t an Oscar feel out of any of the performances. That’s all I’ve seen, I’ll get around to them. Except for La La Land, I just have no interest.
I read a review that said Natalie Portman sounds like Cartman from South Park in Jackie so when I saw it over the weekend I spent quite some time giggling…
Viola Davis is just the best.
I wish Amy Adams could upset the best actress category! I wasn’t blown away by Natalie Portman and I feel like Emma would win because of the ingenue role.
I hope Ruth Negga and Isabelle Huppert get nominated!
I’m actually surprised by how far Amy’s name fell in the contender list. She’s in two amazing films and she might not get nom at all which is ridiculous. She deserves it over Meryl (like stop giving her noms for horrendous films) and Natalie.
This! She was astonishing in Arrival – and I’m pretty sad that Jeremy Renner, for all his faults, won’t get a supporting nom because he was understated and superb in that film too. I love that film so much.
The Academy takes Amy Adams for granted. She consistently delivers incredible performances, and her performances in Arrival and Nocturnal Animals are both deserving of nominations. Haven’t seen Jackie yet, but Emma’s performance in LLL doesn’t hold a candle to either of Adams’ performances. Yet she will almost certainly win, because of the ingenue factor, as you pointed out (that’s also why poor Annette Benning is being ignored this year. If you’re not under 30, pretty much the only way you can win a lead actress Oscar is by launching an “I’m Overdue!” campaign, a la Julianne Moore).
Me too about Amy Adams!! I loved loved her work in Arrival. She just disappears into her characters.
I hope Viola doesn’t get the Oscar. Naomie was far better, and in a film that’s vastly superior too.
Blunt only got a BAFTA nom because she’s working in London right now and will probably show up (less and less big stars attend the BAFTA’s every year). She won’t be getting an Oscar nom.
Taraji might get nominated now that Hidden Figures is a big box office hit. She seems to be actively avoiding campaigning though, which surprises me because she’s gone all out for TV noms. I’ve seen the film and still I keep forgetting she’s the lead because I’m just seeing Octavia and Janelle everywhere.
I’d be shocked if Barry Jenkins doesn’t get a nomination, especially since Moonlight is one of the stronger BP contenders. I think the fifth choice will be between Scorsese and Gibson, so I’m rooting for Scorsese. Hacksaw Ridge was just a standard Gibson gore and god masturbatory session, so I’ll be pissed if he’s nominated.
I thought Naomie was the standout in “Moonlight” as well.
I thought the youngest and the teenage boys were the standouts in Moonlight. The guy whose been getting all the nominations does not appear in much of the movie — I’m not sure why he’s getting all the attention. Personally, I think Manchester by the Sea is the better movie, in terms of screenplay and cohesion. I loved the screenplay in Manchester. So beautifully written and acted. I hope it is not forgotten by the Academy.
i agree that the youngest boy and the teenager in Moonlight were the strong actors. they were the heart and soul of the movie. actually the man that the boy grows up to be was also good. I wasn’t super impressed by Naomi, and I also didn’t really think the actor who’s been nominated (sorry I am blanking on spelling of name) was all that either. yes he was a nice character and i liked the actor’s warmth and grace in the role, but i don’t know what he did that was that amazing.
I see your point about the supporting categories and minority actors, but you are forgetting Denzel! It would be a shock if he’s left out so no I do not think the lead categories will be all white. Not looking promising for Ruth Negga though.
Oh and as usual though Hollywood “diversity” will be “hey we nominated some black people!”. Latinx though? Nope sorry, congrats on being the largest minority in the US but no Oscars for you. At least there might be Dev Patel I guess.
“Oh and as usual though Hollywood “diversity” will be “hey we nominated some black people!””
yep, expect some asian jokes, too.
The Directors race is the old white men’s club. Always has been and they are not open to outsiders so I expect to see Gibson and Scorsese. I haven’t seen either of their films but I did see Moonlight and Barry Jenkins definitely belongs there.
The acting categories have the most diverse voting block for the nominations of any of the categories but even still they fail year after year to reflect that. Ruth Negga deserves a nod, over both Emily and Amy. My list for Best Actress would begin with Viola, but she’s competing elsewhere so: Ruth, Emma, Natalie, Annette, and Taraji. Supporting: Viola, Michelle, Naomi, Nicole, and Octavia.
Best Actors: Casey (yes, it really is a good performance), Denzel, Joel, Viggo (it is a good performance and I think other actors like him), and Ryan G. Supporting: Mahershala, Dev, Lucas Hedges, Aaron, and then a toss up for the fifth spot between Michael, Jeff Bridges, and Chris Pine and Simon Helberg.
Mira Nair, Indian born woman, may get a director nom for Queen of Katwe. We know its about how much is spent and who campaigns on your behalf but she has turned up on a couple of interviews and roundtables very unexpectedly. She wont win but perhaps a nom. I agree that Mel Gibson is a shoe in for a nomination. Thats Hollywood for you.
I keep forgetting about that film and I enjoyed it so much. Absolutely lovely. Yes, Mira should get a nomination, but with the Directors being the epitome of the old white guys club, she probably won’t.
I loved that film. I’ve followed her films for awhile. They are usually pretty good. Check out Monsoon Wedding.
I have a sinking feeling that Barry Jenkins will end up being snubbed for best director. Having seen both LLL and Moonlight, it really angers me that LLL is probably going to end up winning best picture and director, and that Mel fucking Gibson will probably get a best director nom over Barry. Moonlight was a perfect film, and that was primarily due to Barry’s vision and direction (and, of course, the amazing performances across the board). It was also a very powerful and, I think, timely film, given what’s going on right now. Whereas LLL was trite.
As for the other noms, I’ll be happy if Huppert gets a best actress nom (and win!). I’m also really hoping that Annette Benning won’t be snubbed. Still pulling for Michael Shannon and Jake G. to get nominations, but I think ATJ will be the only actor from Nocturnal Animals to end up getting one. I do think Denzel is a lock for a best actor nom. He’s been nominated for every award except the BAFTA.
Barry Jenkins losing out for best director will be reminicent of Spike Lee for Do the RIght Thing. These are both black films that tell contemporary stories. Hollywood doesn’t want to know how black people live there lives now.
Is it obligatory for Meryl Streep to get a nom?
Yep.
I thought hidden figures came out too late to be considered?
TBH, after seeing Arrival, La La Land and Jackie, Adams deserves the attention more for Arrival than the other two do. If I white actress was going to win this year it should have been Adams. But she doesn’t campaign the same way the others do. Arrival was also, like Hidden Figures, – surprise win at the box office. Ruth Negga also deserves a nom.
Having now seen Florence Foster Jenkins I genuinely don’t see why Streep is in this convo. The role was bizarre and not her best work.
I totally agree. Amy deserves her Oscar. She was amazing in Arrival and she has been overlooked so many times before. I will be really mad if Portman or Stone win.
She is the new Leo. She’s bee nominated 5 times already.
LOVE Amy in Arrival. Would be so thrilled if she shocked everyone and won!
I might watch the full Oscar show this year. Just looking at some of the potential nominees, I can see the acceptance speeches might cause the ” The one who shall not be named with the orange hue ” go into a Twitter rage.
I saw Hidden Figures and just loved it. All the ladies did a great job. I really love Octavia Spencer, in particular. She says so much with just a look.
I also saw Loving and Ruth Negga was brilliant but I found the film to be just okay. I was really looking forward to it because it’s a story I’ve been teaching in my class for years now and the few alterations they made to the story didn’t really bring much to it IMO. I’m glad they didn’t make it too “Hollywood flashy” but I thought it was too slow at times…
I haven’t the rest of the contenders. Still working through them! lol
I absolutely do not want to see La La Land at this point, though. I don’t know why. Maybe it’s good. But I just…don’t want to lol.
Fences and Lion are next on my list.
I would be very happy with a tie between Viola and Naomie. And M. Ali, B. Jenkins and Moonlight need to take their categories. Haven’t seen HF or LLL or Lion yet, they’re on this week’s to do list. Loving never played here, will have to wait for disc. Everyone in HOHW was excellent, but Ali was just mesmerizing in his fairly brief role, give him the statue!
Olivia Spencer looks so beautiful with hair arranged like that. I really adore it!
Well, I am in a minority here – I experience films as a “whole” and judge performances by how the whole fabric of a film held up. I am more moved by fantastic ensembles – work that elevates a piece so that it is greater than the sum of its parts. I don’t say I don’t see great performances in front of me, but it’s not why I go to the movies. Given the abysmal state of script writing these days, a well told story whose performers are there to make the story work, rather than the story being a vehicle for performances, is what there is too little of these days.
So the crazed attention to individual acting categories always kind of bothers me. I didn’t like La La Land (yes, yes, I know, everyone else on the planet loved it), I thought Manchester by the Sea was masterful and while it was anchored by Affleck’s performance, it wasn’t overwhelmed by it. Viola Davis was absolutely outstanding in Fences, but it’s always difficult transferring stage to screen, and I thought the screenplay here fell into the talky/speechy trap that such transfers often have. Her performance broke through that, Washington’s didn’t.
So to me it’s a mixed bag. I really hated La La Land – if I hadn’t been there with a friend, I’d have walked out. Yeah, it was a love letter to old time musical movie cliches – the problem is, those old movies transcended those cliches and turned them into art, and La La Land gave you the cliches without the art. I hope Manchester by the Sea and Fences and Moonlight wipe La La Land out, but I suppose that’s too much hope for.
I felt the same way about LaLaLand. I hated it. I felt like it was attempting to manipulate me into liking it.
Thank you thank you thank you – I thought I had been beamed down to a planet where everyone else spoke Movie Martian!
Another Manchester fan here. I thought it was a beautiful screenplay and masterfully but subtly acted. An ache, a bruise. A portrait of pain. So well done. Kenneth Lonergan for the win!
If you haven’t seen most of the films, many movie chains, (AMC and some others) do Oscar showcases in the weeks before the ceremony. Some do a marathon in which they show all nominated films in a 24 hour period while others do a two -day, usually on the Saturdays before in which they show half the films on one Saturday and half on the other Saturday. We do the 2 Saturdays (even though we’ve seen most of the films) and it is a fun event surrounded by movie buffs camping out in the theater for the day. Best picture nominees get to be in that category not just because of the acting but because they get the votes of the guilds too for thinks like editing and cinematography and costumes so it does help when sitting through the ceremony if you have seen most of the films. Also, some smaller, artsy cinemas and museums that show film get packages of the shorts and run them together for the price of one full-length film ticket. In the past few years, I have found some of the best movies in the shorts categories. And it does really make the ceremony more interesting if you have a vested interest in which documentary or animated short wins because you’ve seen them all.
I think the rightful winner in the Best Actress Category is Amy Adams for Arrival. Emma Stone is still young and may have many other opportunities and Portman, well, don’t get me started. As for the Best Actor, as long as it doesn’t go to Casey Affleck I’m happy.
Why bother having supporting categories if lead actors like Viola can be nominated in them just to secure a win? It’s patently unfair to those who are truly in supporting roles who now really don’t stand a chance. There needs to be a limit on how many minutes a person can be on the screen in order to be considered supporting. Just unfair to the rest.
La La Land was good, not great. Overhyped.
That’s what Alicia Vikander did last year for The Danish Girl.
Yes, and that, too, was wrong.
if the Oscars were actually awarded on the basis of what was good and not what fits the Oscar bait profile/campaign, half the Best Picture nominees wouldn’t even be shortlisted.
and if f-cking Deadpool gets a Best Picture nomination while Hidden Figures goes ignored, I will be angry enough to SPIT.
As for the actor race….. I am 100 percent serious when I say you can see better performances on tv, Portman’s Jackie cosplay is nicely costumed and she looks gorgeous but I really think she’s getting attention more for her image than anything else (“I went to Harvard! NEVER FORGET I’M BRAINY!!!”) and as for Stone, that singing was on the level of the Buffy musical. Seriously, you put these ladies up against the likes of Katee Sackhoff or Sarah Michelle Gellar, they wouldn’t stand a chance – it’s just the perception of movies being more prestigious than tv that raises them in the public eye.
Natalie has done well with milking that Harvard thing, honestly there are tons of actors that have gone on to prestigious universities so I’m like who cares? Casey Affleck went to Columbia, Naomie Harris went to Cambridge, and so etc. Whenever my mom sees her, she says it’s the “Harvard girl” lol.
@lostinthought – seriously I eyerolled so hard when even CB bought into that nonsense in the Ashton Kutcher pay gap post – as if being a HARVARD GRADUATE was some kind of qualification that should entitle an actor to more pay.
I love Vanity Fair’s Little Gold Men contest and when they discuss the Oscars they keep talking about the possibility of Trump voters taking over the Oscars too (so that Mel beats out Barry for best director, or Jeff Bridges beats out Mahershala Ali). I don’t have much hopes for the Oscars but I am hoping both of those bets are wrong. I’m also hoping Brie’s perfect face at the Globes makes some Oscar voters second guess a vote for Casey Affleck for Best Actor.
Mostly white…probably. Completely white…no.
For Best Actress, I think Emma Stone, Natalie Portman and Amy Adams are shoe ins as they haven’t missed any precurors. La La Land and Arrival in general have felt love from the guilds. I think Meryl Streep, Ruth Negga, Isabelle Huppert & Taraji are battling right now to take those last 2 shots. Isabelle won the globe but missed on a lot of precurors. Ruth Negga started the season off strong but has been losing steam. Meryl is well liked in the industry (her globes speech may have even given her a boost) and she was nominated for a SAG. Taraji hasn’t seen any love yet this season (which is a shame) but her movie is gaining steam.
As for Best Actor I think Denzel, Ryan Gosling, Casey Affleck, Andrew Garfield are safe. Denzel only missed Bafta and they apparently have never nominated him for anything so that’s just a clear bias on their case. Otherwise he has made it in the precurors. Same goes for everyone else. Now, Viggo also has been nominated for SAG, Golden Globe and BAFTA but truth be told the talk for his film has been pretty quiet. So I think theres a chance he could be replaced. Nocturnal Animals has seen a lot of love at the Globes & BAFTAs so I think its possible that perhaps Jake will sneak in. Or Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool. I know some people might be shocked to hear that, but the film was nominated for a Producers Guild Award , A Writers Guild Award and a Directors Guild Award (although that one was for first feature). So there clearly is love for the film.
Best Supporting Actress – I think will be the same lineup as the Globes. Octavia Spencer, Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Naomie Harris & Michelle Williams.
Best Supporting Actor – I think Mahershala is safe for sure. Next I think Jeff Bridges and Dev patel will be nominated. As for the last 2 spots, I think not just because of the noms at the golden globes and Baftas but especially the WIN at the globes that Aaron Taylor Johnson has a good shot of making it in. Hugh Grant has also seen some love this award season so he’s another good shot. (Although he’s been split between leading and supporting in some cases…so that might hurt him). Also I don’t know if the love for that film in general is strong. Lucas Hedges (the young actor from Manchester By The Sea) is a contender. Love for the film all around and he did get a SAG nom.
And that’s just the acting categories, and so far a number of black actors (plus one Asian)have popped up. So no, I don’t think we’re gonna have a Oscarssowhite controversy. If we bring a directors I think Barry Jenkins is gonna make it in. Though probably losing to Damien Chazelle. And Denzel still has a pretty good shot there as well. If you look at Best Picture, films like Hidden Figures, Moonlight, Lion, Fences all have a really good shot of making it. So…an improvement.
Reynolds is campaigning heavily. He might sneak in as a surprise as Depp once did with Pirates of the Caribbean.
Moonlight is the best movie I have seen this year. All the feels for Moonlight. Ruth Negga for the win in my book. Please do not nominate Natalie “meh” Portman.
Dev Patel supporting for Lion? Just watched the trailer and it seems he is the lead. You know the adoptive son who searches for his bio mom and roots?
If this is only a supporting role… Does this mean the rich adoptive mom/ Botox Kidman is the main character?
Shes supporting. I haven’t seen the film, but from what Ive heard the film either jumps back to the past quite a bit, or half the film takes place in the past. Idk. I guess the parts are pretty equal to a certain extent and that’s why both of them are supporting.
The child Sunny Pawar is the lead and he is amazing. Dev and Nicole’s parts really are supporting. Sunny is on screen for the majority of the film. Dev and Nicole basically just introduce the flashbacks to what happened to Sunny’s character.
Bearing in mind the nomination list of the DGA, which is the guild that nominates the directors…..
https://www.dga.org/Awards/Annual.aspx
I’m annoyed that Nate Parker got a nomination, but hopefully that won’t translate to Oscar nom.
Yeah but he got a nom in Best New Director, not the main category so he is not in contention at all. His chances die in July.
DGA is a good prognosticator but AMPAS almost never match the five names there, so I’m expecting some surprise in it (Hopefully is Marty Scorsese as Silence is the best film of the year by far.
About actress, the five have been pretty much secured since octuber (Emma, Natalie, Amy, IsabELLE, and Meryl) but still anything can happen. Just praying Huppert gets in!
BUT WHY MERYL?!?! She gets nominated for breathing ffs!!
y’all, i finally saw moonlight last night. i haven’t been that moved by a film in a very, very long time. it has stayed with me. such a heavy, important film. must see.
based on her age Emma Stone has time to win an Oscar where as Adams and some of the other potential nominees aren’t so lucky Amy is her generation’s female Paul Newman as if she gets nominated for either nocturnal Animals or Arrival it will be her 6th nomination and Newman lost his first six nominations in best actor in a leading role so when he won on his 7th it was considered atonement for losing for better scripts The Color Of Money is considered the weakest of the 8 scripts which he was nominated for the best actor Oscar for beginning with Cat On A Hot Tin Roof in 1959 and finishing with Nobody’s Fool in 1995 though he also received a Best Picture nomination for Rachel Rachel in 1969 and best actor in a supporting role for Road To Perdition in 2003 and also received two Honorary Oscars Lifetime Achievement in 1986 and The Jean Hershalt humanitarian award in 1994 if Ms Streep wins it will be her 4th Oscar out of 20 nominations in 38 years from her first in 1979 it will be her 17th for best actress in a leading role the last actress to win four Oscars was Katherine Hepburn 1934 1968 1969 and 1982 Hepburn was nearly 75 when she accepted her last Oscar Streep is 67 Newman was 62 when he won his Oscar and 78 when he received his last nomination this would be Denzel’s 7th nomination if he’s nominated and 3rd win if he wins