I’m actually pro-campaign finance reform, I just don’t consider it one of the most important issues of any election cycle. There’s too much immediate sh-t to deal with than to get into some kind of political navel-gazing debate about dark money, lobbyists and corporate interests. Plus, I’ve always felt like if people were dumb enough to vote against their own interests because of a corporate-sponsored campaign, then we all get what we deserve. Also, if we’re going to have a conversation about campaign finance reform, we should also have a larger conversation about how the media has utterly abdicated their responsibility to promote and conduct substantive conversations on the issues.
Major media outlets would rather spend the money on polling two years away from a presidential election than spend money on real reporting. And politicians follow suit – it’s profoundly stupid to think that “the polls” right now, mid-June 2019, will have anything to do with the political situation in September 2020, which is when most people will actually make their voting decisions. All of which to say, I f–king hate talking about polling, especially at this point. But we are. And it’s predictably dumb – Donald Trump fired his pollsters after they found that his re-election campaign is struggling.
President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is cutting ties with some of its own pollsters after leaked internal polling showed the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in critical 2020 battleground states, according to a person close to the campaign. The move comes after NBC News obtained new details from a March internal poll that found Trump trailing Biden in 11 key states. Portions of the campaign’s expansive March polling trickled out in recent days in other news reports.
But a person familiar with the inner workings of the Trump campaign shared more details of the data with NBC News, showing the president trailing across swing states seen as essential to his path to re-election and in Democratic-leaning states where Republicans have looked to gain traction. The polls also show Trump underperforming in reliably red states that haven’t been competitive for decades in presidential elections.
A separate person close to the Trump re-election team told NBC News Saturday that the campaign will be cutting ties with some of its pollsters in response to the information leaks, although the person did not elaborate as to which pollsters would be let go. The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear. While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.
Biden polls the best because of name-recognition and the fact that the only thing media people want to talk about IS THE POLLING. It’s self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. But still, I guess it’s funny that Trump fired his pollsters. It’s funny that he’s that much of a thin-skinned despot who can only listen to praise and lies. It’s funny that he’s going to shop for pollsters who will tell him what he wants to hear. But as I said, if you want to believe that Trump’s numbers are struggling, you also have to believe that Biden has the best shot at the Dem nomination. And I refuse to accept that.
Photos courtesy of Avalon Red.
He polled behind in the election because no one wanted to admit they would vote for him but many did. Obviously. Campaign fund changes would change the game completely, candidates with less funding could get their message out at the same rate of those with more. Right now, Presidents are bought, not elected.
Omg can Biden run as gop. Take it from trump. Then lose to a progressive dem.
I like this idea.
I don’t know why anyone would be surprised. He can’t handle anything but praise and adulation. He lies because to not do so means to face the facts – and he doesn’t know what to do with the facts and it terrifies him. He is a very scared little man.
He’s definitely the most deficient one in his family tree – not like his uncle or father or grandmother. He didn’t get the brains. But he is good at the bull-shit. Unfortunately, too many people also love his bullshit and they worship him for it. But bull-shit isn’t facts.
Now he’s firing pollsters?
You know of all the people around him and he still, apparently hasn’t fired his hairdresser.
Ha ha! When he & Mel were “new” he said that she did his hair.
Apparently he dyes and styles his own hair.
And does his own makeup. ugh. between the orange tan, badly caked on powder and concealer…dude. just use some of this money you supposedly have and hire someone to style you.
It’s just more proof that the emperor has no clothes (warning: don’t try to visualize that).
I don’t trust a single damn thing that comes out about Trump until the 2020 election. The risk is too high. I will be treating the political process up until that point as if nothing is a sure win. Too many people thought 2016 wouldn’t go down the way it did. And here we are.
I’ve been telling myself he’s going to be re-elected for the last two years. I’ll vote straight ticket Democrat as I did in 2018, 2016, and every election since I turned 18, but I just can’t let myself get excited for anything else. My hopes were sky high for Hillary, they were high for Beto, and I just can’t let myself expect anything good from elections anymore.
Polls are useless when a significant portion of his supporters are too cowardly to admit to pollsters they’re going to vote for him.
I live in a strait blue state and will vote the same. But it’s why there’s so little voter turnout. If your state isn’t swing so many people just stay home. It’s your civic duty, people vote! I’m sadly thinking he will get elected again, because that’s the scary sad world we live in, but id rather he be a 10 million votes down in popular vote and show how stupid the electoral system is and how badly he’s actually doing.
Loser.
It’s not just Biden. Apparently he is behind the top five Dems to varying degrees. Biden just has the most points among the Dems. However just last night I read that they are getting quite worried about Warren and Harris.
They’re getting very worried about Warren. All the little attack dogs like Charlie Kirk are going after her now.
Republicans were hoping to gain traction from whom? At this point, they’ve got all the white people they are going to get.
This may not be true and that is very scary. For example, Romney thought he’d win because his internal polls did not take into account that eligible black voters who failed to vote for Obama the first time would increase their percentages. He was honestly shocked.
My fear is that there may be millions of white bigots who’ve never voted–so they are not polled–who may come out for their white nationalist leader.
I don’t trust polling, whether it is a year or one day before an election.
Learnings via campaign 2016.
People also lie to pollsters. Who would want to admit for voting for the big fat zero like Trump? Believe that is exactly what happened a few years ago people lying their arse off about voting for Trump.
Exactly this. I am certain this is what is happening now, to a certain degree at least.
People telling polls one thing but doing the exact opposite on Election Day in 2016 are part of the reason that he won in multiple Midwestern states. The polling seemed to be closer to the actual numbers in some key races during the 2018 midterms, which was reassuring in retrospect.
I haven’t made up my mind on whom I’ll vote for in the Democratic primary yet. I think part of the reason that Biden is leading is due to name recognition and what potential voters are contacted by polling companies. Most companies still rely heavily on landline phones, when many Americans have gotten rid of their landlines and only use their cell phones.
Plus, one thing we learned from the 2016 polls was the total population polls were fairly accurate, albeit Trump did underperform slightly in the polls, but within the margin of error. The state polls were off, specifically several key states were wrong and outside the margin of error. Why do people expect it differently now? I hope he doesn’t win, but I think it’s a bit crazy to believe the polls now. Also, I don’t have a problem with all the Democratic candidates. The American public has the attention span of a gnat, it’s better if someone catches on fire later on. All these people mean they won’t get as Trumpified or boring to the pubic by election time.
Kaiser, you make an excellent point about the importance of U.S. voters needing to turn out to vote for their interests. This country has too many people who have bought into the cynical hype that voting doesn’t matter, and their negative attitudes helped install Trump and the oligarchs. Compare this to the millions of people in Hong Kong turning out to cry for the freedom to vote and have a democratic form of government, instead of the chains of authoritarian rule! This seems to be the battle we are in now–a global fight for transparent, truly representative governments instead of another century of dictators pretending that cartels are countries. Voting is our offense and defense in an extremely high-stakes game.
Petulant Baby!
As others have said, it’s too early to rely on polls, 2016 showed how fallible they are, and so much of polls comes down to how the question is asked, how large is the polling pool, etc. BUT reporters do these stories because, unfortunately, they draw numbers, click, comments and ratings. Interesting story in the NY Times this morning that somewhat addresses this as the writers were talking about Sarah Sanders, the next communications director and the press pool.
Trump and Fox are only focused on Biden right now so he (Biden) will probably continue to poll well through to next year because they are paying him so much attention. I’ve got my fingers crossed that Biden pulls a Howard Dean level gaff and we can done with him, the sooner the better. Until then, let the MAGAts go after Biden. Progressives don’t want Biden so they are kind of doing us a favor.
Is it wrong of me to find joy in Nagini being stuck on an airplane on a tarmac for more than four hours last night, being forced to switch to a car for a ride to North Carolina, and arriving at 3 AM?
No! It’s not wrong! Hearing this brightens my day!
Was she on a plane full of peasants? Good. She deserves it.
Polling doesn’t matter when we have foreign governments interfering in our elections and no one is doing anything about it.
I always thought that make sondages, while the presidential campaign did not even start is something very useless, the Democratic candidate has not yet been elected.For now he have all these chances of being elected, the economy is good, he managed to nominate a conservative judge, made terrible laws that appeal to conservative Republicans and despite all the scandals his base is always very loyal to him.
IMO, the Supreme Court is where we’re really going to feel the damage of this administration years and years down the line. We’ve got a long, ugly road ahead for civil rights with a conservative majority.
I mean. What’s the point? The new hires will have received the message that they have to show that trump is winning in the polls (even if it’s a lie) or get fired. Anything they produce will be useless. Agent Orange is shooting himself in the foot.