I was going to take a break from covering politics for a few days because I’m kind of burnt out on all of Donald Trump’s daily tantrums, catastrophes, racism and horsesh-t. But here we are. So, I’ll start with some good news. Across the board, in every poll done over the last month, Joe Biden has a double-digit lead over Donald Trump. The NYT just released a new poll:
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taken a commanding lead over President Trump in the 2020 race, building a wide advantage among women and nonwhite voters and making deep inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning groups that have shifted away from Mr. Trump following his ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term. Mr. Trump has been an unpopular president for virtually his entire time in office. He has made few efforts since his election in 2016 to broaden his support beyond the right-wing base that vaulted him into office with only 46 percent of the popular vote and a modest victory in the Electoral College.
But among a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.
Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016.
Personally, I’ve never really thought that Joe Biden was *that* strong of a candidate, and I’m sure a significant amount of Biden’s support is simply “I will vote for literally anyone but Trump.” Adam Serwer at the Atlantic had another thought though – Biden is such a strong candidate versus Trump because Trump’s incessant “white identity politics” (ie, racism and sexism) fall flat against Biden. What it takes to fight a racist misogynist jingoist nativist idiot is… just some white guy.
After twelve years of running against Obama and Clinton, Republicans are discovering white identity politics isn’t as effective on Biden https://t.co/xK65axx5os pic.twitter.com/QrcAGskfY6
— Adam Serwer🍝 (@AdamSerwer) June 24, 2020
Speaking of, Trump said a bunch of racist sh-t yesterday at a “Students for Trump” event at a mega-church. The students cheered wildly when he said “Kung Flu.”
WATCH: President Trump again refers to the Chinese Coronavirus as “Kung Flu”, crowd goes wild at ‘Students for Trump’ event pic.twitter.com/hgiL57hTq1
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 24, 2020
Photos courtesy of Getty.
This makes me happy to see. I MUCH preferred Warren or Harris, but I do see why Biden is actually a strong candidate — 1) People are desperate for anyone not Trump, and 2) He’s moderate enough to not scare normal Republicans (as in, the ones who aren’t Trump supporters). He’s a very middle-of-the-road, standard politician who has been in the game for a long time, and I think that works in this instance.
All that said — polls make me so nervous. Polls showed Hillary winning up until she didn’t. I hope people don’t take this as “oh good, if Biden is projected to win by a landslide I don’t need to vote.”
Polls make me nervous as well. I honestly don’t really care about national polls or anything that is aggregating data across the country. What Obama’s team knew and did an AMAZING job at was knowing exactly which counties, in which states, they had to win to win the overall election. The presidential election in the US is a numbers game and not a popularity contest which unfortunately Hillary learned the hard way. The fact that her team neglected key swing states really hurt her campaign. I pray that Biden’s team has a solid swing state strategy and that the DNC finds a way to make the Democratic platform accessible for average Americans.
I will never forget how confident The New York Times was that Hillary will win in 2016. One of the most respected news sources, it produced hundreds of biased and opinion based pieces about the upcoming elections at the time. I don’t even think they did it because they were mistakenly confident. They were just lazy and arrogant. They simply didn’t do their job properly. Instead of working hard to report on wider public opinion, all we read was what the East/West Coast liberals thought.
And here it goes again, “Trump has been unpopular throughout his entire presidency” – oh, really? Have any of your reporters traveled across the country or at least to the great big Red states at all? Talked to different people? I’m pro Biden and I have several friends on my FB page who are so enamored with Trump, I have zero doubt about who they will vote for. And I would not discount them, because they might very well make him president second time in the row.
Yeah, I have no confidence in what The New York Times is saying. They are lazy and live in a bubble.
In this current climate, I am less concerned about people not feeling the need to vote than I am about people being prevented from voting. I think citizens know that this vote is life-and-death, so I don’t worry about people turning out. I worry about the GOP and other bad actors interfering with the integrity of the election system.
ding ding ding
so true!
The trend in the polls was going against Clinton in the last two weeks, it was a case of how long she could hold on before they flipped. As in, she was still leading in most polls, but the margin was getting smaller and smaller, the trend was moving away from her. I remember watching the RCP averages getting tighter and tighter and hoping desperately that she would hold on, but worrying – rightly – that she wouldn’t. At the moment, both the trend in polls and the raw numbers are in Biden’s favour, and the betting odds have also flipped. It’s just a case of how things hold on and change leading up to November.
Agree with all of this, every word. He was not my choice, at all. But I will of course vote for him!!
The thing I like about Biden is I feel like he is willing to listen to others, hopefully he’ll build a really strong cabinet, and he wants to be collaborative and hopefully government can start to work together.
I hold no faith in polls. I think people walked into those booths in 2016 and quietly voted for Trump in droves. I don’t want to see that happen. I would like to help register voters in my area and see what can be done to increase turnout. I’m not going to rest on polls. Does anyone know how I could help with these things?
Google your state/county and “volunteer deputy registrar” and you should find a bunch of resources for how you can help register people to vote. HTH!
I am very disillusioned by the whole electoral process, this feels like bad deja vu. Where everyone went on and on about Hillary having a lead over Agent Orange, I got my hopes up and then they were dashed to the ground.
I will celebrate these numbers when I see Biden getting sworn in, am afraid to get my hopes up.
I’m with you! There were like three and a half people predicting that Trump will win and here we are, four years later. I’ll celebrate when we have something to celebrate.
100% agree. This kind of feels like deja vu all over again. Please everyone don’t relay on the polls.. last time around they mislead us. It’s ok to have these numbers in the back of our minds, but I won’t trust it until I see Biden in the White House
Same here! Polls were very misleading in 2016.
Same – I don’t trust the polls one bit. Was burned too badly in 2016.
Polls in June don’t matter. Things tighten up after Labor Day. The only poll that matters is the one on November 3. We all must vote. This is going to get much nastier.
And the Appeals Court just ordered charges dropped against Flynn.
Vote like our lives depend on it, because they do.
I agree but this is very promising to those that need some hope right now. One thing I saw yesterday which I was like yah! was Biden’s team telling Trump’s team that NO, they will only do 3 debates, organized by the non-partisan group. Go read about that – it’s an interesting take on how Trump is already trying to twist things to his favor and Biden shut him down.
Yes, I saw all that. They were all over the place demanding to know why Biden was refusing Trump’s request for four debates. I pointed out to all of them that Biden had agreed to the three debates proposed by the Debate Commission and the terms of the Commission but Trump was refusing to agree to three debates or the terms of the Commission. Trump wants to be able to choose the moderators.
You know that 45 does get the sense that things are really bad for him when he’s asking for more debates. He’s desperately seeking for a ‘moment’ to give him the boost he needs…anything that makes him shine against Biden. Late last year, he was considering sitting out the debates because he felt confident in his ability to win…now, he wants more debates!!! I have hope!!!
He comes across as really unhinged when he speaks so why would he want more opportunities for that? My local station shows very little of his speeches. I can’t remember the last time they covered a corona virus briefing.
@fluffy_bunny — can’t remember the last time he *had* a coronavirus briefing. Total dereliction of duty.
I know things will definitely tighten between now and November, but right now, today, I’m going to let myself feel optimistic about this.
I will not rest easy until after the election. I was sure he didn’t have a prayer against Hilary. Polls are not election returns. All of these people who say they are anti-Trump need to get out the vote (and of course need access to easily vote.)
And we need to hope that the electoral college supports the voters, and that the voters in swing states vote for Biden instead of Trump. The popular vote didn’t matter in 2016, because the extra voters were in states where Clinton won the electoral college. If Republicans in swing states want to hold their noses and allow more death to get more Supreme Court justices and regional federal judges, Biden will lose.
It’s about where liberals and conservatives live. Rural states have a lot of power, and enough conservatives have to be swayed, or liberals have to overwhelm the conservative populations in those states. I’m keeping my butt in California. Biden is a moderate, but his ties to President Obama could still sink him. Clinton was ahead in the polls until the night she lost.
Not to be pedantic, but the extra popular votes came from all states. All the states that Trump took easily had a lot of Clinton voters. Some as high as 40%. The red states. But we got zero electoral votes, so no voice in the presidential election. I hope us red states can overwhelm with our Biden votes this time. The electoral college disenfranchises EVERYBODY that doesn’t live in a swing state. Why do a handful of states (usually the same ones) get to decide for everyone else?
It’s not only a matter of “get out and vote” – voter suppression is a real BIG problem. So I suggest if people have any pocket change they put it to groups that are fighting voter suppression like Abram’s FairFight.com group.
Yeah…that’s what Stacey Abrams keeps saying too…voter suppression is real! The predominantly black county in Kentucky only has one polling station. People are being denied their right to vote because an alphabet is missing on their ID card!!! This is a real problem!!!
Yep-which is why I also included access to voting-suppression is a huge problem.
Stacey Abrams had some numbers on the amount of voters who were purged in a few key swing states, and in all the cases, it was more than what Dump won by. It’s so crucial to fight that suppression, and for everyone to make sure their voter status is good to go.
Voting integrity has to be a top priority NOW. We need to get involved at the state and local level to make sure they are working on vote-by-mail options, and to make sure that all voting systems have paper trails that can be audited (one of the huge benefits of vote-by-mail).
IT ISN’T ENOUGH!!!!! I am so scared for November.
Hillary led Trump but he won. Don’t rest on your laurels. This is a battle of a lifetime.
Trump won by the tiniest of margins in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. That’s how he won. The polls weren’t necessarily wrong. They aren’t necessarily wrong here.
Exactly! I’d encourage everyone to volunteer to call voters in the battleground states. Vote Save America has an Adopt a State program. Or on Mobilize.us you can search by zip code for volunteer phone calling opportunities. I’ve done it since January and it’s a great way to organize and make sure Democratic votes get turned out!
Biden is comfort food and stability. He is also the promise of a new cabinet that actually knows WTF they are doing.
Agree. Competent staff (and filling numerous empty positions) are important. He knows how to do that.
I agree. I also believe that Christian Cooper’s endorsement of Biden was a watershed moment. The way he so eloquently spelled out how badly we need Biden right now and how he is the right candidate for the moment, was cathartic and enlightening. It won me over, and I had been a hold-her-nose to vote for Biden up until then. I hope his message spreads far and wide.
Last time they said this too then they cheated in my opinion. I worry that’s an issue again, along with voter suppression. Once the Cheeto is out I’ll start believing polls again. We need to really politicize the lack of response to the pandemic. People are dying & the administration doesn’t care at all. This should be all over, along with the black lives matter. All people are losing people, drs without borders is in Florida & Arizona is at capacity, we are in uncharted waters. I hope the polls are right
I am 100% sure that they cheated. They can only do that if it’s close, though. If we have a true landslide for the Democrats, they can’t do that, but they keep find newer more inventive ways to suppress the blue vote (but usually it seems the black blue vote).
I will repeat until I’m blue in the face that I think the GOP has been stealing elections via Diebold machines and similar for YEARS.
This is why we need to flip a couple of red states that they don’t see coming. They are more likely to focus cheating on swing states. If we take a couple of red ones and blindside them, it might make the difference. I feel in my bones that Georgia may be within reach.
I wonder if Biden is holding off announcing his VP pick as he knows Trump has nothing to throw at him … male, white, roughly same age… so it will all be targeted at her.
It’s wise to hold off on VP pick as long as possible. It usually isn’t done until the convention. Campaigns need a bit of something new, some excitement as they head into the final stretch. August is a great time to announce the VP candidate.
He did send out a VP survey yesterday. Women on the survey are:
Stacey Abrams
Tammy Baldwin
Karen Bass
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Muriel Bowser
Val Demmings
Tammy Duckworth
Kamala Harris
Michele Lujan Grisham
Susan Rice
Elizabeth Warren
Gretchen Whitmer
Don’t forget about the Senate, the House, the Governor races, and all the down ballot seats for state and local positions. All of the supporters, enablers, and others who just duck their heads and keep their mouths shut about the sh&t being allowed have also got to go. Otherwise nothing can really change.
Thanks, Just a Thought. That’s how you turn the electoral college over, too: local elections. It’s why voter suppression is so blatant this year. And they are using the coronavirus in some cases as an excuse to deny people their right to vote.
And people need to vote for those too
More than that. I want them tried for their crimes. I want the GOP crushed and dead, misdeeds exposed.
Canadian here. While I am happy that Biden is leading in the polls, the USA has had a very bad run of underestimating the red states and boomers coming out to vote. When George W. Bush got elected we were shocked. When he got re-elected we were thoroughly not impressed. And now Emperor Cheesetits is the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. Don’t get ahead of yourselves, guys. Don’t be that Simpsons episode where everyone assumes Bart would win and Martin won because no one showed up. VOTE
Point of clarification: George W Bush was not elected to his first term, it was given to him by the Supreme Court.
Thank you. Gore was the rightful winner.
And Hilary was the rightful winner of the last election. How did that turn out?
While nobody should get complacent, and everyoneshould vote, Hillary won the popular vote, so the polls weren’t that inaccurate, they just didn’t factor in the antiquated af electoral college.
I hope that along with tackling voter suppression and gerrymandering, Biden makes one of his goals abolishing that archaic voting structure. It’s got to go.
The polls didn’t factor in Russians changing votes with military precision on the necessary states. He managed to barely get Penna, Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin under the number that wouldn’t trigger a recount. That dog don’t hunt.
Don’t get comfortable and do not assume this will be easy. Trump will bring his full bag of jingoism and dog whistles to rally the fragile white male racists and xenophobes. Time for everybody to double down, step on the gas and fight as if the fate of democracy depends on it. Because it does
Absolutely! DT doesn’t play fair. Nobody on his team does! We shouldn’t assume it’s in bag .
Let’s just keep going until November. These polls are encouraging but lets not get complacent.
I agree with someone above that Biden is comfort food. People don’t like to eat junk food all the time. Some of these people who were Trump voters are as tired of his tirades and tantrums etc as we are. They want that bowl of chicken noodle soup. They want someone who is fairly boring, experienced, has friends on the other side of the aisle.
its an imperfect analogy but you all get it lol.
Yeah, Biden is white, old, Irish-Catholic and from a working class family…the boogeyman label can’t effectively be applied here. However, Trump does have Houdini tendencies and that’s why in spite of his numerous flaws, he became president!!! It’s a little scary knowing that the polls also predicted that Hillary would win but for the first time in a long time, I’m really optimistic that a ‘miracle’ can – and will – happen!!! God help us all!!!
By the way, another Republican Super PAC – Right Side PAC – has been formed to support Biden. In addition to the Lincoln Project and any others, I hope they’ll be able to steer enough disaffected Republicans away from the Orange One!!!
Yes. I keep seeing so many “WhY dOeS nOtHiNg StIcK??” questions about why Trump can’t properly attack Biden like he did Clinton/Obama. Gee, it really IS a mystery, isn’t it?
We can’t get complacent! This is going to be a hard, dirty fight, and there is so much at stake.
Check your voter registration status. Register for Vote by Mail if you can. Ask your state why not if you can’t. Don’t forget the down ballot, especially local, elections. Donate/volunteer/support where you can. Fairfight.com is a great place to get involved.
I’m not paying attention to any polls now. The way voting has been going this year I’m extremely nervous about what’s gonna happen in November.
We must all Vote, Vote, Vote! That’s the only way to get rid of this virus- I mean Trump!
Hyping the polls like this is not a good idea. And this far out, they are notoriously unreliable.
Debbie Dingle openly said she doesn’t trust any polls at this point, and I’m with her. 2016 was plenty of evidence that polls can’t be trusted.
The Dems need to keep hammering home the message that Trump is insane, dangerous, evil, etc. They should not let him have a moment’s rest.
And I think he knows this. He is already promoting conspiracies about foreign countries flooding the election with fake paper ballots. He is setting the groundwork to contest the election or have his supporters revolt or something. And that is scary. Even in the darkest times in American history, one thing we’ve always had was the peaceful transition of power – and that is actually something of a rarity. We’ve never had a president contest an election or try to forment dissent towards his successor. Trump will try to undermine Biden at every turn, and that is frightening. Biden getting elected would be a welcome change, but if you think he will be able to sail smoothly, you are mistaken.
I hate these polls so much. We’re still months away from the election, and these kind of articles breed complacency. I knew so many people in my state who threw away their vote so they could stay ~pure liberals~, depending on the rest of us to vote Hillary, which meant Trump wound up winning Pennsylvania by less than 50K votes and flipping it red for the first time in decades. At the very least, they should have been showing up for the downstream elections, which would have saved us from the majority of this mess. People should be counting their blessings for the 2018 elections flipping so many state legislatures blue or this pandemic would have been even more disastrous.
I’m hoping for the best and expecting the worst. Miss me sticking around for this sh*t show if people put this idiot back in office again and give him a Republican congress with it. I’ve already getting my credentials and travel documentation ready and renewed, am wiping out as much debt as possible, and have bug out bags getting put together in case some sh*t really hits the fan. Even if we get Biden and then flip back to a red Congress in 2022, I’m probably out. As far as I’m concerned, all Biden getting into office does is give me a few years to determine my next moves, and a lot of my instincts are telling me to consider getting out of America. I’d rather change things through political action, but if this mess hasn’t convinced people to show up to primaries or vote in *every* election, I don’t know what will. If you have the privilege or capability to consider it, I recommend looking at your options, too.
Absolutely. I agree 100%, same here. I do think Biden is going to win, Trump cannot win with his numbers, and they’re steady enough. But he can steal it. But also, importantly, I agree about a Biden win. It’s a short break, I learned that. 2024 they’ll run Tom cotton, and folks, he’ll win. I want out myself. The people in this country are just crazy. I’m done with them.
In total agreement; thinking about getting out, but hoping a Biden win buys more time to figure it out. I’m curious where you, and anyone else thinking this way are considering going?
I’ve been looking more and more towards New Zealand. Jacinda Ardern is a fantastic representative for them on the world stage. Her opposition, The National Party, is wrong, but not pure evil. I plan on starting grad school in a few years and it seems like a great excuse to leave America.
I’ve been looking more and more towards New Zealand. Jacinda Ardern is a fantastic representative for them on the world stage. Her opposition, The National Party, is wrong, but not pure evil. I plan on starting grad school in a few years and it seems like a great excuse to leave America.
New Zealand or Australia. Canada if I have to, but they’re not as far behind us as they think.
My recommendation to people who don’t have the resources to consider emigration – or have families to consider – is to save up and move to a major blue state. That’s the privilege of living in a state based union – take advantage of those states rights. It’s expensive and it may mean debt, but it won’t be as bad as leaving the country.
I look at it as same as refugees fleeing a bad political situation. Utilize the time you have to get out before getting out is a life or death risk. A lot of my friends were shocked when I said women who stay in states where they pass laws destroying their medical autonomy for abortion were only hurting themselves. If you’re with a man who thinks your body and life aren’t worth leaving a STATE over, he can’t value you that much. F*ck that noise saying you should risk your rights to fight there. Get out while you can.
VOTE BLUE! Do not pay attention to polls.
VOTE!
Everyone needs to figure out how to vote by mail. I’m a registered democrat and got a post card with instructions on how to vote by mail. My husband is a registered republican and has not received any information like that. Our state does early voting so we can likely vote in person early to avoid crowded polling places. Start figuring out ways to safely vote.
Biden has Florida, AZ is slowly but surely turning blue. Biden will be a bridge president with a strong administration of those willing to do the necessary clean-up and propose needed change. CA will be sending out 20.6 million ballots to all registered voters. We’ve had the option since 1979 of voting by mail. I have in the last three elections. We use QR codes and barcodes and can follow up to be certain our ballots have been counted. I won’t stop in my efforts despite my feeling confident and taking pleasure in the decline and fall of the menace in the WH.
I think it’s true. You can see even his crowds they’re bored to tears, until they can start chanting ‘LOCK HER UP”. So some of this is 4 years of this buffoon destroying everything, and some of it, it’s hard to run their favorite playbook against an old white dude. But wait until his VP is announced…
that’s nice but um none of the people that would vote for him or his party can without hours long lines. It’d be nice if you know there was focus on that instead of the go vote platitudes his former boss likes to spout.
Good
I’ve been writing with Postcards to Voters for a few months now. This is really important, y’all, we cannot get complacent. They send you a list of addresses of registered democrats in key districts (usually FL or WI), and you write them a handwritten postcard telling them how to enroll in Vote By Mail. It’s fun, you can decorate it however you want. It’s a safe way I can be an activist in the evenings after my kids go to bed! Sometimes I even let them decorate the back of the cards.
Trump is planning to ask electoral judges to vote for him no matter the state vote. That will send the country into chaos.
You know, I initially did consider Joe pretty second-tier in the primary but I’m now thinking I was wrong about that and he’s stronger than he was given credit for, warts and all. I can’t think of another candidate in the primary who could’ve gotten the numbers Joe has managed with seniors and white religious voters, and that’s what is fuelling his lead. Doesn’t really fit what more liberal Democratic supporters (like myself) would want, but his strengths seem pretty much perfectly made for countering Trump. I have faith in him pulling this off, but I’m not resting yet. I want to see Trump absolutely crushed on election day, enough to take the Senate with him by a good margin.
Joe is a humanist sensitive to the needs of others. Joe has what so many lack, “emotional maturity.” A man like Joe and at his age has a desire is to leave something good of himself both for his family and his country. He’ll misspeak, commit endless faux pas, and he’ll still retain the best motive and intent. Under the duress so many of us have felt, we’ll finally have a period of calm.
Exactly. I think he, better than anyone, conveyed that and that is what will best create the coalition needed to win this election
This makes me smile. I’m so happy to hear this news, but I don’t want to get too excited. Hopefully, this means my dreams will come true~
Finally we’ll have a president who’ll govern for ordinary Americans instead of Wall Street. He’ll withdraw our troops from pointless and wasteful wars, he’ll ensure that every American has access to healthcare, he’ll shutdown the prison industrial complex and pave the way to making his successor the first black female president. All this AND jobs, jobs, jobs. It’s been a long few years under Trump but hang in there we’re about to get the greatest president we’ve ever had.
I’M RIDEN WITH BIDEN.😎
I wouldn’t get comfortable with polls. Made that mistake in 2016 when I was so sure Hillary was going to win and when the orange doofus won it was a shock. He’s going to pull some kind of unsavory something, regardless if it’s getting another country to fix the election or dig his heels in when it’s time for him to leave on Jan. 20, 2021.
I personally believe he won, because the election was rigged! Hopefully, that won’t happen again this time.