Back in the day, the general rule of presidential election cycles was that the vast majority of the American voting public only decided who they would vote for around Labor Day of an election year. As in, most people aren’t even paying attention to the two-year-long horse race or months of exhaustive punditry, and they make their decisions about two months before an election. Of course, these days, that’s not the rule – political operatives have convinced themselves that they need years of candidate brand-building and a campaign without flaws at every moment. I guess what I’m saying is that we are fifteen months away from the 2024 presidential election and I need the New York Times to stop terrorizing me with poll numbers every f–king morning.
Yesterday’s news was that the NYT did extensive polling within registered Republican voters and they found that Donald Trump is still the heavy, diapered favorite. Trump is polling at 57% and his closest rival is Meatball Ron DeSantis at 17%. DeSantis’s popularity has bottomed out significantly in recent months as well, as he has been exposed in the national media – as in, as soon as the rest of America got a good look at this Florida nutjob, they were like “no thanks.” This morning, the Times released another poll in which President Biden is in a “dead heat” with Diaper Don.
President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.
Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.
Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.
[From The NY Times]
This was written in the style of the New York Times Pitchbot, I swear to God. Anyway, I will happily vote for Joe Biden again and I’ve been pleasantly surprised by just how effective he’s been in the White House. Skilled diplomat, negotiating genius, progressive economic policies, liberal social policies. My guess is that Biden is waiting to summon the full Dark Brandon campaign for next year, a campaign which will be heavy on “abortion” as the defining issue of the race.
Photos courtesy of Backgrid, Cover Images.
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Washington, DC – United States President Joe Biden speaks on a ‘successful’ counterterrorism operation that killed Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, from the Blue Room balcony of the White House in Washington, DC.
Pictured: Joe Biden
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Kyiv, UKRAINE – United States President Joe Biden meets with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, February 20, 2023. Volodymyr Zelensky said ‘Joseph Biden, welcome to Kyiv! Your visit is an extremely important sign of support for all Ukrainians’. During Joe Biden’s trip to Kyiv, air raid sirens were heard warning of a possible impending Russian airstrike as V. Putin continues his country’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden comes as the United States and European countries step up military assistance to Ukraine, though V olodymyr Zelensky has called for more help, including fighter jets, to improve Ukraine’s air defense. U.S. President Joe Biden has met with Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Kyiv…The American leader had previously announced a trip to Poland but made the surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday February 20, 2023.
Pictured: Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelensky,
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Kiev, UKRAINE – U.S. President Joe Biden meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday. In addition to meeting at the Ukrainian presidential official residence, the Mariinsky Palace, where they also held a joint press conference, Biden and Zelensky walked around Kyiv and experienced a dramatic moment when air raid sirens sounded – warning of a potential Russian air strike. There were no reports of missiles hitting the city during Biden’s visit…They also visited the city’s St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery, laid flowers on the Wall of Remembrance of those who died for Ukraine, and unveiled a plaque dedicated to the President of the United States on the Walk of the Brave in Kyiv. In a statement, President Zelensky said: “The first call on the night of February 24 last year, our negotiations, the constant and unwavering strong attention to our struggle and defense of Ukrainian democracy, as well as Mr. President Biden’s personal contribution to strengthening the position of freedom in the world – this is something that will always be remembered in history”. In his own remarks while speaking alongside Zelensky at the Mariinsky Palace, Biden praised Ukrainians for their fortitude and remembered how one year ago, when Russia invaded, many feared Kyiv might fall within days or weeks..”One year later, Kyiv stands, Biden said. Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you”.
Pictured: U.S. President Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
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Sterling, VA – Former US President Donald Trump and son Eric were seen golfing at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia.
Pictured: Donald Trump
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Former President Donald J. Trump appears in court for his arraignment, in New York City. According to CNN: Former President Donald Trump personally pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree in a Manhattan court after hearing charges against him. The charges stem from an investigation into a hush money payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Featuring: Donald Trump
Where: New York, New York, United States
When: 04 Apr 2023
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US President Joe Biden with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar at Farmleigh House, Dublin, on day three of his visit to the island of Ireland.
Featuring: US President Joe Biden, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
Where: Dublin, Ireland
When: 13 Apr 2023
Credit: PA Images/INSTARimages
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White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner. The annual dinner raises money for WHCA scholarships and honors the recipients of the organization’s journalism awards
Featuring: President Joe Biden
Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States
When: 29 Apr 2023
Credit: Nathan Howard/POOL via CNP/startraksphoto.com
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White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner. The annual dinner raises money for WHCA scholarships and honors the recipients of the organization’s journalism awards
Featuring: President Joe Biden
Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States
When: 29 Apr 2023
Credit: Nathan Howard/POOL via CNP/startraksphoto.com
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President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden with Prime Minister Narendra Modi arriving on the North Portico of the White House ahead of a state dinner. Biden and Modi announced a series of defense and commercial deals designed to improve military and economic ties between their nations during a state visit today.
Featuring: First Lady Dr. Jill Biden, President Joe Biden
Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States
When: 22 Jun 2023
Credit: Al Drago/POOL via CNP/startraksphoto.com
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United States President Joe Biden departs the White House for South Carolina, where he is scheduled to tout his economic plan. The president ignored shouted questions about cocaine found in the West Wing.
Featuring: Joe Biden
Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States
When: 06 Jul 2023
Credit: Jim LoScalzo/POOL via CNP/startraksphoto.com
Voting for any of the R candidates is like switching seats on the Titanic. The D candidate (in this case Biden) has my vote. Period, end of story.
I wish they would stop with the constant polling because it just makes me sad for my country 😞. Like dang this is the best we could come up with 😬
Polling is skewed though. It’s anyone who has a landline, would actually answer to a stranger and talk to them. Leaving out Gen Z and a lot more. Women largely support Biden who as you say has done an AMAZING job & women turn out to vote in higher numbers since the 60s. Dipshit men who support Trump more (!) won’t show up thank God. Voters for wingdings like RFK Jr and Williamson might as well hand it to Trump which is why Fox gives RFK Jr so much air time. Please vote Biden and straight blue so we can combat this vocal minority who have a stranglehold on the abortion issue, are oppressing the LGBT faction & trying to take our country back to the 50s.
I was just about to say all of this! Polling is not nearly as accurate as it used to be for all these reasons. And, reporting a close rate drives engagement for the NY Times. They are not above writing slightly misleading articles in favor of chasing a dollar.
@Angel oh yeah I know polling is skewed and I never take it seriously. I just had big hopes we would go a different route. I don’t want a rehash of 2020.
It’s accurate enough to show that Trump has enormous support. After everything he’s done that is a really poor reflection on this country. It’s so demoralizing.
I, too, am tired of hearing this. Just spikes my blood pressure.
I just hope we don’t fall into the trap of “well my vote won’t count, so I’ll stay home.” Trump getting elected again is a very scary possibility and we are pretty assured on what we are going to get if he gets back in office. So vote like your rights depend on it… since apparently they do.
God, some Americans are infuriating.
Yes, Fuzzy Crocodile, I’m also terrified that Democrats will stay home or delude themselves that their vote won’t count. Last election this happened in New York State and that’s why Kevin McCarthy is leader of the House! (And yes, I read about redistricting there, but essentially the Ds had a poor turnout.) Personally I would prefer a different D candidate, BUT we don’t have one. We have Biden. And not supporting Joe is helping out the Rs. We need to vote!
Rachel Maddow had an interesting poll yesterday. Every single governor, all 50 states, is more popular than unpopular. Even the few whose popularity was less than 50%, their unpopularity was lower than their popularity. So, people are, in general, happy with how things are going but they are not giving Biden credit. Dems have always had poor marketing.
I’m not sure it’s that they’re not giving him credit–it’s that a segment of our population will hate Biden no matter what he does, just like they did Obama.
For example, in our little town there’s a shit ton of really disruptive construction going on everywhere. It’s causing traffic issues, blocking people’s driveways, creating almost unbearable levels of noise and it’s overall a HUGE pain in the ass, It is also completely necessary after decades of neglecting our infrastructure and as painful as it is right now, long term the town will be much better off for it.
In the center of town is a huge sign saying that this project is courtesy of Biden’s ***BIPARTISAN**** infrastructure bill and the Boomers in my town are freaking out in the neighborhood forum about it. They’re literally blaming (solely) Biden for fixing our godforsaken mess of a beach town.
It really does remind me of the MTG ad from Biden where they just paste together a bunch of clips of MTG talking about all the good things Biden has done, but somehow she frames it through a pejorative lens.
All this is to say that these people, the ones who hate anything for the collective good; anything that objectively benefits our society, simply because a Dem did it, are why we can never have nice things.
What is it about road construction that makes republicans so mad? Do they just love driving on potholes? Also, the people who think road construction should only be done at night drive me insane.
LOL right! Like, it is OBJECTIVELY improving the town AND making it safer–new roads, new pipes, new sidewalks..how broken must your brain be to think that these are BAD things????
Swear to God, the first person to come up with effective marketing for Democrats should get the Nobel Prize. _Why_ is it so hard for them to figure this out?!?! Granted, they are substance to…whatever crap the GOP is, but, geez. If they just quit letting the Repubs drive the cultural/political conversation, they’d be miles ahead.
How about a “mainstream” media that isn’t 100% for the GOP? The NYT was, for a long time, talked about by the rest of the mainstream media like it was the most liberal paper in the world and it’s not, not even a little.
The positions of ABC/CBS/NBC are always pro corporate and pro GOP with their framing, always. No wonder no one ever gives credit to Democrats and people are still able to pretend, with a straight face, that both parties are the same.
I don’t believe any polls. It’s too early snd the media words their questions in a way that sets up the results they want.
But this country is a full on mess and it’s just sad.
I still can’t quite believe how many Americans are evidently ready to vote for Trump again, after he refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power and instead tried to stage a coup. I really fear we are lost as a country.
I’m not giving up, and I’m going to campaign and work for all Democrats up and down the ballot, but it is amazing how many people apparently think it will be A-OK to have an autocratic GOP in power that will roll back civil rights and liberties for women, LGBTQ people, and anyone not white — not to mention keep ignoring climate change.
Some guy on Facebook was complaining about grocery prices and said Trump would lower them again, which is insane. Early in COVID Trump convinced OPEC to produce less oil, so gas prices would stay up!
I saw a decal on a vehicle the other day that said, “If you voted for Biden, you owe me gas money.”
Don’t worry, it’s not just America. We have the same low functioning humans in Canada, riding around with F*CK TRUDEAU stickers on their car; blaming the Prime Minister of Canada for all the consequences of their own life choices and then some.
While this news is somewhat depressing, I am pleased that de Santis’ popularity has plummeted, although 17% is imo still too high. Hopefully a long prison sentence is in Trump’s future and not a second presidential term. I don’t think this country could withstand another term with the Chaos King and the Destroyers aka the Repubs. Hope the fence sitters and nonvoters will wake up, realize the danger our democracy is in, and vote to protect it and us.
Unfortunately, you can run for President from prison (there is precedent) and I don’t see that will stop voters in the primary. Hopefully in the general election “actually in prison” will dissuade some of the wealthy folks who just voted for Trump because they like tax cuts…
Tied at 43. Unflipping believable. What planet am I on where trump has almost 50 freaking % of the country’s vote?
He shouldn’t even have ten voters, let alone millions.
I’m not even American, but I can’t fathom another 4 years of Trump. God no.
Thanks for writing this article and for pointing out some of the good things Biden has done.
Some left leaning people fall into the trap of getting lured into discussions like “but he’s too old” “or both sides are just as bad” that Republicans set for them instead.
He has done many great things, so I hope more people will talk about them, instead of just trying to look ‘smart’ by acting as if the Democrats are ‘just as bad’. They’re not by many miles.
And Biden has done a lot of good.
https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2023/02/news-unemployment-its-lowest-level-54-years
Meh. Some of us can acknowledge that he’s done good, he’s done some bad, and he’s fallen short in a lot of the areas that I expected him to, which was why he didn’t get my vote in the primary. I don’t understand the folks who endlessly criticize him for every perceived misstep just like I don’t understand the Team Blue cheerleaders who blindly and passionately defend his failures. Guess that’s why I’m an independent. *shrug*
Overall, he’s been better than I expected him to be, so there’s that.
@Kitten has he really been better than you expected? Asking genuinely.
On some issues, yes. especially the stuff he was able to do without Congress’s help. I’m mostly surprised that he even *tried* to do certain things like taking action to lower prescription drug prices. His infrastructure bill looked great until it was watered down, stripping it of paid medical and family leave, universal pre-K, $15 minimum wage, free community college, expansion of medicare etc. He didn’t reverse the Trump tax cuts (thanks, Sinema) and he didn’t codify Roe or enact an assault-weapons ban.
But he did confirm justice Jackson to the SJC, he invested a good amount in green energy, and he managed to reform marijuana sentencing. He didn’t manage to legalize MJ federally so minus points on that. I absolutely support what he did in Afghanistan, but wish he had done so in a less chaotic, more measured way.
And before everyone yells at me about how the GOP and assholes in his own party are why he couldn’t get it done, please remember that I don’t grade presidents on what they *could* have gotten done, but didn’t. I grade them on their accomplishments, period. I thought for a moderate, Biden had a pretty ambitious and surprisingly progressive platform but it still didn’t go far enough for me.
@Kitten thank you for explaining that. I appreciate hearing your perspective. My bar was low for Biden and I feel he still came up short so I am beyond disappointed. I will say I agree with your assessment and the things you listed as issues are my issues. The things you listed as wins I can moderately agree with. Once again thank you!
That completely makes sense, I think it’s my nature to set the bar really low for politicians because I’m used to being disappointed, But I can also see if you had high hopes, that it would feel like Biden fell short. The only thing we can do is to keep holding his feet to the fire. We have an obligation as his constituency to watch him like a hawk and push for him to do more. Onward and upward, friend.
I don’t believe any polls but I will say that regardless of what polls say, I hope everyone who has the right to vote, goes out and votes. This is too important.
I agree. I’ll add, though, that I hope that everyone who has the right to vote is allowed to vote, and I hope that every vote that’s cast is actually counted.
I do want everyone to vote but I’m gonna not be fake here (not saying you are at all) and add that while I want everyone to vote, I hope everyone who goes to vote for Trump (any GOP) has their car or truck or whatever break down on the way. I hope the Universe makes sure they can’t get to a booth. For real pray it. I’m done with their shyt. Honestly, I’m sick of going high when they go low. I’d rather duck. Trump didn’t even win the first time. He’s deranged and so are his thug cult followers. I’d send them all a heated letter but they couldn’t read it. Democrats have been far too bi-partisan and it’s cost people their lives and freedoms. Republicans are brazen enough to not care in that way and we need those attitudes. Absolutely obliterate them. Go high? For what? Not like they could see you from down there. Nope. Not the way I roll.
Please. Let’s not get caught up in polling and the hand wringing that comes with it. The corporate media WANTS a horse race in this election. We can only do control what we can. I’ve resolved to give what I can monetarily, send out post cards and make calls.
Don’t get caught up in the poll nonsense.
Honestly we should’ve got caught up in that poll fraud…the FIRST time. The hacking. Not the 2nd. Trump was never really president. These people don’t want felons to vote either but they allow one to run for president. I just responded elsewhere as a reply to another poster about hoping not EVERYONE (Trumpers) do end up voting and something stops them because I’m done playin.
The fact is that even a highly accurate poll of US voters is not a predictor of a winner in a presidential election. It always comes down to electoral votes.
It’s waaay too early for this. As you say, most people are not paying any attention. Also polling is becoming highly suspect now that we can just look at our phones and choose not to answer. In any case, I do hope that these essentially meaningless polls keep Democrats scared. I, for one, will never get over 2016. Worst night of my life. By far. What does it say about misogyny in this country that HRC lost because of alleged email mismanagement, but Trump, under several felony indictments, can still win?
Looking at things from the distance of being from another nation, to see what was for many years the leading country in the West being presided over by a man who is not in his right mind, tells us a lot about the current state of the world. The question that should be asking when you vote is whether it is serious and safe that the nuclear armament is in charge of this man.
The poll respondents were 72% moderate-to-very conservative, so this is good news. I.e., Biden is tied with T**** among people who are undecided, leaning or rabidly Republican.
TL;DR: The NYT loves to spin numbers for headlines. Dig into the details and you’ll see a different picture.
When we came back from our trip to IA, my husband tried desperately to find some commonality between his conservative friends and family’s views and ours: “We all agree on ____. If only we would talk about kitchen table issues..” And I had to stop him right there because none of those people wanted to talk about lowering health insurance costs, mandatory paid leave, affordable housing, universal pre-k or any other policy that would improve our quality of life. They wanted to talk about trans people, nonbinary folks, black people “getting over it”, and any other number of cultural wedge issues. All of this is to say that it wouldn’t surprise me AT ALL if Trump wins and we must NEVER underestimate the power of red meat on his hungry, angry base. That shit motivates them more than anything else and I do expect they’ll take to the polls in droves next year.
Scary shit for sure.
The number of likely voters who identify as republican has decreased and the number who identify as independents has increased. Independents are pretty sour on Biden but they dislike Trump more. That’s manageable if Trump ends up being the republican nominee. It’s pretty bad if he gets knocked out of the race by prison, health, or fleeing the country. I’m not comfortable with Biden’s chances against 56 year old Glenn Youngkin or some other republican dark horse with less baggage. Biden is a weak candidate, absent the Trump factor.
I voted for Biden in the last election — I will vote for him again in the next election. I think considering what he’s inherited, he’s doing well. Also, Biden is willing to lean more progressive in his policies, considering he used to be more conservative, centrist Democrat. That tells me he’s willing to learn and change. His age not being a factor.
Also, who’s getting polled? I’ve been voting for YEARS and I have NEVER been polled — even during the years I had a landline. WTF? Whoever they’re polling reminds me the last time I was in a jury pool waiting to find out if I would get selected for a case. Turns out, I didn’t get selected, but what was more interesting were those that DID get selected. The jury chosen for this case were mainly college kids and retirees. Really? This is who represents a cross section of a “jury of your peers” in NYC? I am a working single woman in my 40s and I like serving on a jury and I couldn’t even get selected. Anyway, sorry to go off topic a little but I don’t know which segments of the populations they’re polling, but I have NEVER been polled.
It’s ONLY people with landlines. Who in the US has a landline anymore? Most people haven’t in over ten years. Who DOES—-old white boomers. I am an old white boomer (with no landline lol) and these are who the pollsters reach at home 🤷🏽♀️
I’m going to guess a high percentage of landline owners are GOPers.
Please vote for democracy, we only have it IF we can keep it, Fam.
Let’s keep it. 🇺🇸 🤞 💪
the fuck? TIED? President Biden has accomplishments, normalcy and the good of the future of this country on his mind. Trump? Failures, insanity and the good of Donald Trump on his mind. How is this even a contest? Who VOTES FOR this sonofabitch? Just WHYYYYYYY? Trump’s continuing indictments only seem to pump up his base. Again, why?
Sounds like NYT click bait to me. Slow news day.
After the midterms last year where it was supposed to be a GOP tsunami I stopped believing in polls. Instead it was a GOP light drizzle lol. I think overall Biden is doing a great job considering the mess he’s inherited. I’ll vote for him again in 2024. And I hope the country wakes up and votes for Biden again . We don’t need a criminal back in the WH.