I just wanted to circle back to this year’s SAG nominations, which were released yesterday. People are still sort of shocked by them, and I’m “people.” Usually, the SAG nominations helped cull down the Oscar races, but it feels like this year’s noms were a grenade in the middle of multiple Oscar campaigns and prognostications. There were some notable surprise nominations – Jamie Lee Curtis for her supporting role in The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in supporting for Wicked – but the “snubs” are even bigger surprises.

First off, the chaos in Best Actress. SAG nominated Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) and Demi Moore (The Substance). Who thinks that will be the Best Actress shortlist for the Oscars? There’s been so much buzz about Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, it’s stunning that the SAGs blanked her. Angelina Jolie’s performance in Maria garnered a Golden Globe nom and Critics Choice nom, but now the SAGs and BAFTAs have both ignored her. It sucks, but now I believe that Jolie probably has no shot at an Oscar nomination. It’s especially painful because they gave Kristen Stewart a nomination for Pablo Larrain’s Spencer, and I think Larrain’s Maria is a much stronger film, and Jolie gave a much stronger performance than K-Stew.

I have to say though, as chaotic as this Best Actress race is shaping up to be, it gives me hope that Mikey Madison might end up the surprise winner. I love Anora and I’ve thought for a while now that Mikey could have a real shot if she waged a smart campaign. The emergence of Demi Moore as a serious contender is bonkers to me though, but I hated The Substance. If there’s going to be a surprise shakeup in Best Actress, I would assume it will be Nicole Kidman getting in, not Jolie.

It’s also wild to me that Denzel Washington was snubbed for his supporting role in Gladiator II. He was the best part of that ridiculous film, and it was something we never saw from him. He looked like he was having a blast. Plus, HE IS DENZEL. How can you NOT nominate Denzel?

Some mentioned Sebastian Stan in A Different Man – Stan won the Golden Globe, which was seen as a boost for his Best Actor chances. But I think the SAG noms for Best Actor are probably what the Oscar noms will look like – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). I just don’t know who will win in that category if those are the Oscar nominees though. Ralph? Timothee? Hm.

In the supporting categories, they’re also saying that Selena Gomez got snubbed for her work in Emilia Perez. I’m not so sure, but something that does interest me is whether the “backlash” to Emilia Perez grows during the Oscar-voting period. A lot of people have a lot of feelings about the film, the quality of the film and whether the film is exploitative to Latin Americans. Still, many consider Zoe Saldana the frontrunner for Supporting Actress, so who knows. They’re also saying Margaret Qualley got snubbed in supporting for The Substance, which… again, I did not like that movie, but if you’re giving a nom to Demi, sure, Qualley was half of that performance.

Some other snubs, according to experts… nothing for The Room Next Door, but I wasn’t expecting anything for that film? Nothing for Jesse Eisenberg, who wrote, directed and starred in A Real Pain – but I think Kieran Culkin is probably going to win an Oscar for it, so there’s that. Nothing for Elle Fanning in A Complete Unknown, which… I’m fine with. I enjoyed A Complete Unknown and Elle was good in it, but her performance wasn’t groundbreaking or anything. The few people who have seen The Brutalist also think Felicity Jones is being robbed of a major Oscar campaign, as is Guy Pearce.

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Cover Images, posters from ‘Gladitor II’.