When the Oscar nominations came out, I lamented to a fellow film buff about Ralph Fiennes’s nonexistent Oscar campaign. I was going on and on about how Fiennes should be the Best Actor frontrunner, not just for Conclave but for his outstanding body of work for decades. The film buff shrugged and said, “well, he’s already won, so people won’t want to give him another Oscar.” People, Ralph Fiennes has NEVER won an Oscar. He won ONE Bafta back in 1993. Never won a Golden Globe. This past Sunday was the first time he won a SAG Award and it was for the ensemble of Conclave. I bring all of this up because even film buffs and Oscar voters think Ralph Fiennes has already won an Oscar and that’s why they’re reluctant to vote for him for Conclave. Some more highlights from Variety’s latest “anonymous Oscar voters” series:

The Brutalist, Anora or Conclave for Best Picture: In best picture, the ranked-choice voting system can dramatically shape the outcome. If this were a single-choice category, like the other 22 Oscar races, I’d be tempted to predict a victory for “The Brutalist.” The film has strong passion within the Academy but suffers when not ranked No. 1. Voters who don’t have it at the top tend to place it No. 5 or lower, at least from my findings. Interestingly, “Anora” often appears alongside “The Brutalist” when ranked No. 2 or 3.

An Oscar voter complaining about people not watching all of the nominated films: “I watch everything! I hate it when people don’t take this job seriously. It’s our responsibility to watch all of it… When you don’t, you miss masterpieces like ‘The Substance’ and ‘Emilia Pérez.’”

A surprise in Supporting Actress? Monica Barbaro and Isabella Rossellini appear on many ballots, mainly where “Anora” and “The Brutalist” perform well… I didn’t come across nearly as many Ariana Grande and Felicity Jones voters as I suspected I would. Does that mean they’re not out there? Of course not. But we have to remember musicals are always “tougher” sells for cinephiles. If you’re not a “musical person,” you only have Barbaro, Jones and Rossellini to choose from. And even if you love the genre, some went for Grande; others chose Saldaña. This could hint at a jaw-dropping moment coming on Sunday or be unrelated noise.

A Best Actress toss-up: Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Demi Moore (“The Substance”) were seemingly in a ping-pong match on a stretch of about 12 voters, and it looked like it was those two at the top and nothing else. When the dust settled, there was a considerable amount of support for Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”). The latter’s film has been the hardest to track this season, mainly due to more than a third of the voters I spoke to sharing that they had only watched the film in the last few days before turning in their ballots. I believe the support of Torres will ultimately bring the movie to a victory in the international feature race, a first for Brazil. One artisan’s branch voter says, “I never heard of this movie until it was nominated for best picture, and, oh my God… That movie was incredible, and she is a goddess. I voted for it in all three categories.”

More on the Best Actress race: Mikey Madison and Torres are most potent among the international membership, while Erivo and Moore are most prominent among voters based stateside. Moore’s film is the most polarizing, and what I found most interesting is we underestimated how much of a barrier horror movies are for entry for cinephiles (the same goes for musicals). That’s what makes the race much closer than it otherwise would be. Regarding “Emilia Perez,” the “backlash” didn’t change as many minds as people may have thought. However, I found many that weren’t on board with the film in the first place, which is surprising considering 13 nominations. One awards strategist shares a theory: “The voter turnout for the nomination phase is very low. It shows it doesn’t take much to get a nomination.” However, one voter was defiant about sticking with their vote for Karla Sofía Gascón. “I don’t care what people do during their private time… I voted for her, even though she won’t win.”

The Best Actor race: What I did see was a decent amount of Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and especially Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). I’d go as far as to consider that, if Adrien Brody were to lose, it would happen in favor of Fiennes. One voter cites the British actor’s stunning career for his support: “He is one of the best actors who’s never stopped being great.” Surprisingly, two separate voters who didn’t vote for Fiennes said they did not vote for him because “he won before.” They both believed he won an Oscar for “Schindler’s List” (1993), which he didn’t, as he lost to Tommy Lee Jones for “The Fugitive.” “Oh sh-t!” one chuckled after being corrected. Coincidentally, they voted for Brody, who actually won an Oscar for “The Pianist” (2002). As you can tell, sometimes these things tend not to make much sense.

[From Variety]

It’s very “Oscar voter” to say that Ralph Fiennes doesn’t deserve an Oscar this year because he’s won before (he has not) and then vote for Adrien Brody, who has actually won before and it was a huge surprise when he did win. Like… I would love it if Ralph pulled off an upset, but I think he didn’t campaign enough and it’s just such a weird year. Having seen A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist, it’s like comparing apples to oranges – I want Timothee to win his first Oscar, but even I have to admit that Brody’s performance in The Brutalist was career-defining.

The thing about Demi Moore and The Substance is interesting – like, Oscar voters might punish Demi and the film because they have an issue with the horror genre? What’s funny about that is The Substance is such an awful representative of the horror genre. Same with Emilia Perez and the musical genre, and I absolutely hope that there’s a surprise in Supporting Actress, but I don’t think it will happen. It’s legitimately exciting that so many of these races are complete toss-ups though! I doubt the confusion will bring in higher Oscar ratings though.

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, ‘Conclave’ stills, Matt Sayles/Shutterstock for SAG.